Rolls Royce Plc has gained more than 350% since 2009 lows, and seems to be reaching a long term resistance & short term upside looks limited. 850 is about the short term 50DMA support, and of course a better entry would be at 750-800, but that would probably take a global economic slowdown soon.
Of interest is that Rolls Royce started off as a luxury car maker, but now its mostly in the aerospace industry, & BMW was an airplane engine maker & now owns Rolls Royce Motors & making only luxury cars. A change of roles over a hundred years but both their stock price performance since 2009 are fairly similar at >300% gain, with Rolls Royce ahead.
Expedia has doubled in value since March 2012, but recently looks like its losing steam & setting up a bearish rising wedge. Short term support is about 58, but I think it may decline close to 50 which happens to be near its 50DMA, once its wedge pattern breaks down. Of course, part of the reason why its breaking 52 week highs is probably due to the Priceline Kayak deal, so unless it gets taken out, I’m negative short term on this.
Sold off all my Apple longs for a decent gain over 2 weeks. Where Apple goes, so does the Nazz. Next couple of months will be important to trade tactically. Despite December being a seasonally bullish period, lots of macro headwinds causing choppy markets.
Lots of companies bringing dividend payments forward into December to escape the possible tax increases next year.
Amongst other things, GS upgraded Crocs to a Buy. Will write up on it soon.
There’s little standing in the way of its price going back to test the June 2012 low of 1.52, & if it breaks that & doesn’t quickly recover, maybe Carson Block is right after all by valuing it at liquidation “nuisance”. 1.48 is the 23.6% fib extension so probably some volatility about there before its next move… its a long way down to “nuisance” from here. Any positive news flow should let it move back towards 1.80 near the 50DMA & short term I believe this will be so.
Intel broke its 200WMA recently & short term is trying to get back up close to it. I think traders will try to range back to closer to its 50DMA which is converging onto the 200WMA at about 20-20.5 before it moves towards the next resistance level of 22-24. Weekly RSI is back to Oct 2008 lows as well. 18.5-19 seems to be an important multi year horizontal pivot line in the sand. NASDAQ recently only had a couple of market leaders such as Apple, Amazon & Qualcomm but laggards like this are worth a look as well.
That name pun was a result of watching too much Walking Dead recently. Intel is still alive & kicking on the contrary.
HSI has been doing well recently relative to the SPX. A combination of the hope of China bottoming, a new premier in place & its bear trend finally exhausting.
For the global funds, H-shares are the only way they can invest into Chinese listcos since China A-shares cannot be touched by them. Looking at SHCOMP’s performance, its clear locals there are a lot more bearish than global funds actively invested into H-shares.
Here’s a recent article link about the peculiar fund flows into H-shares. Quote from article:” Bank of America Merrill Lynch’s global survey of fund managers, covering 248 managers with $695 billion of assets under management, found confidence in China’s economy was at a three-year high.”
Its chart has been forming a big symmetrical triangle, and short term looks overbought & hitting the triangle trendline resistance. Im not confident that its a leading global indicator, therefore short term would look to short as it remains in the triangle & hasn’t formed a clear breakout of this pattern.
One of the favorite shorts by lots of traders may finally be showing signs of selling exhaustion, having retraced almost 50% of its peak value. Its sitting right above its 200WMA, which is usually hard to break down without further negative news flow. It seems to be forming a bullish falling wedge, & anything around 80 upwards should see some buy supports as its weekly RSI is back to Oct 2008 lows. I’ve got a feeling it’ll consolidate around this range for awhile before attempting to trend back up.
Gold has had an extraordinary 400% run since bottoming around year 2000, when the then Fed Chairman Alan Greenspan embarked on the cheap debt expansion policy. It hit a speed bump in 2008 but has risen dramatically since then. Some may argue from a technical view that its chart since early 1990s looks like the left side of an Eiffel Tower structure & the right side may play out, but fundamentally its being driven by the fear of a big future plunge in fiat currency values & declining cash purchasing power.
There’s a fair chance that this fear could be overdone as it will take years if not decades for another asset to replace the US dollar & its Treasuries as a safe haven simply because there isn’t enough gold circulating globally unlike US dollars.
Its chart has been creating a rising trend, with a monthly support seen at 1550 & resistance of 1900. Short term support is about 1700 & resistance is 1790. Intermediate term, a bullish pennant continuation maybe forming.
Im a gradual buyer at 1550, with a view that if next year is bearish as per the SNP500 triple top playing out, it could fall back to about 1280-1330 at its 38.2% fib retracement. Upside target is 2000 for now.
An interesting article off the net: http://cep.lse.ac.uk/centrepiece/v10i1/crowe.pdf
Quote from the article: “…inflation is a tax. Printing money raises revenue for the government, in the process expropriating a proportion of any wealth held in nominal assets such as cash.”
GMO summarizes future growth prospects in a similarly gloomy way: http://www.gmo.com/websitecontent/JG_LetterALL_11-12.pdf
Is it “fair” that the rest of the world is “raising money” for the US government? Unfortunately almost all globally traded commodities are quoted in the US dollar, therefore the US Fed’s extraordinary monetary easing policies have probably made future global economic growth potentials slower than previously capable.
EURUSD is attempting a bullish IHS. Initial resistances is right on the falling trendline at 1.30, then 1.3155 of 38.2% fib extension. It would be a major positive for the broader markets if it were to clear these 2 major resistances & form the IHS in earnest. I don’t believe it’ll be that rosy for it considering its lower high trend.
EURUSD is the most traded forex pair daily in terms of value & has major risk “on” “off” implications for the macro picture.