Dow Jones

What have you been up to Mr Jones? Oh nothing much really, just creating a bearish rising wedge on my monthly chart & a possible HNS on my weekly chart. Clue enough?

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Wilmar update

Wilmar has gained >5% since I posted about it finding support around 3.16. Its hitting the top end of its daily RSI resistance, so I’ve sold all my Wilmar longs for an average 5% gain within 3 weeks at 3.33. Will consider to enter again when the charts show buy setups.

Super Group

Super has had a super run since 2009, gaining >900%. But recently it seems to have stalled at the top end of its long term resistance at 3.29 (see the weekly chart inset) and looks to be charting a bearish descending triangle on its daily & hourly chart. Its a good stock to own, but with “super” overbought weekly RSI, a fairly significant decline may be the case unless they get bought over etc. Short term resistance/support is 3.22/3.00. Its a better buy at 2.60-2.80 long term at the lower end of a long term support & 23.6% fib retracement.

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Nikkei

Is it possible that the dormant  Japanese sun is finally rising again? Nikkei 225 is attempting to break a 2 decade falling trend line with a >15% gain since Nov 2012 lows. Watch for it to break 10,200 first short term resistance & support is 9,600, followed by 10,765 longer term. Ideally it breaks 11,000 next year, but that’ll depend on global macro conditions. With Japan’s new PM increasing QE prospects, the Yen has been falling a lot recently, which helps exporters & many have already run up, such as Canon, Fuji Heavy & Shimano. As the Nikkei’s daily chart is overbought, wait for stronger pullbacks if buying.

Quote from Jeff Gundlach of Doubleline Capital: “You make 80% of your money in 20% of your investment time.”

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SMRT

The stock which many love to hate may finally be showing downside respite with its weekly chart forming a bullish falling wedge. Its now basing around the 38.2% fib extension, & the May 2012 low of 1.62 may be strong support as there’s also a long term support trend line there too. Short term resistance/support is 1.72/1.67 & its daily chart is trying to form an ascending bull triangle. It has to break out & stay above 1.74 to show strength to commit on the upside with a mid term resistance of 1.80 at the 50% fib extension.

This Friday is the US stocks triple witching so usually post that stocks are positive, but the post New Years’, the outlook is difficult to say the least because right now, the market is expecting the US fiscal problems to be resolved…

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EURUSD

EURUSD has followed on from the identified inverse HNS & maybe on the way to completing its inverse right shoulder. Looking at the broader picture, its monthly chart is possibly forming into a bearish descending triangle. Its needless to speculate how this may occur but its something to keep an eye on, together with the possible bearish SNP500 pattern, on a mid term basis.

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Hermes

Hermes is attempting to break out of a falling trend line, so look for it to break and stay above 238 for confirmation. Daily RSI is also trending upwards. Short term resistance/support is 244/226.

Their CEO was recently quoted in Reuters : “Globally, we do not see any slowdown anywhere … including in Asia…”. Longer term resistance is 288 but that will depend very much on the broader market performance early next year. Strong support at 215.Herm131212

Genting update

Genting has gained >8% since I wrote about it having upside potential 3 weeks back. Next few days may see some weakness, but I’m expecting the seasonal Xmas rally into Dec 31, so its a ticket to ride for most mid-high beta stocks. Early 2013 outlook is very murky so consider taking profit around 1.40 resistance, as this still isn’t a buy and hold period.

LVMH update

Since I posted on LVMH setting up for a breakout 3 weeks back, it has broken out & gained 7%. Daily RSI is overbought but weekly isn’t. Unless there’s more positive news coming out soon, its likely to be of limited upside & faded. Short term resistance/support is 143/136.

I’m expecting an Xmas rally so its good to take profit at 143.

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Wilmar

Wilmar’s long term chart seems to have found some support between its 23.6% & 38.2% fib extension. Assuming the solar maximum is next year as predicted, soft commodities like soybean & wheat should peak around then as well, which is margin positive for integrated crushers like Wilmar in an anemic global economy. Others such as ADM & Bunge should benefit from the upcoming soft commodity bear market as well.

Further reading: Aurora Borealis & global surface temperature study, Sun headed into hibernation. Ani-thesis: Global warming myths. Regardless of how food prices are moved, let the charts do the talking.

Mid term resistance/support is 3.50/3.00.

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