Risk sensitive currencies like the Aussie tend to have a good correlation with broader market moves. Looking at the larger weekly trend, it may be hitting a medium term falling resistance, and the obvious downside catalyst would be less than satisfactory US fiscal cliff discussions. I would short if it hits around 1.05, with a long term rising support at about 1.01-1.02 forming the bottom side of a big triangle, which suggests uncertainty in medium term direction until a major catalyst appears.

Together with the SNP500’s rising wedge & the HSI’s triangle, these three charts are all reaching the ends of their patterns, which means a significant move is afoot.



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