Bitcoin

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Bitcoin has recently gained +30% from its March lows, & at current prices about +60% from 2017 YTD lows. Key support is US$1136-1146, & a good long trade would be to wait for it to clear its 2017 falling the resistance line with strength first. Initial target is $1292 followed by $1488. A break below $1146 may be a concern for bulls.

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$TLT

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$TLT’s incredible multi-year rising looks is almost too perfect, but this time it is facing immense rates rising pressure compared to previous years. Markets are pricing an 80%+ rate hike probability in 4-5 days time so it could be argued that $TLT’s decline has been priced in already in the short term, & therefore good for a “buy the news” long trade.

Breaking its long term support would require much more than expected rate hikes later this year IMO, so we shall have to wait & see.

$USDSGD

$USDSGD has outperformed my own expectations, so heres a timely update before the new year arrives.

1.45 is a clear 61.8% fib retracement level from the 24 Dec 2001 peak of 1.85, so expect to see consolidation here before it makes the next big move. Weekly RSI is slightly overbought but looking at history, whenever it broke above 70RSI, it has gone higher for a couple of months before showing extended weakness, therefore I would be inclined to long on pullbacks, especially if it goes close to 1.40. Rising support trendline is quite well defined. If it breaks above 1.45 with strength, its a clear signal for much prices.

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$GBP:SGD

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I normally don’t trade FX, but interesting development in GBPSGD.  A triangle is forming & resolution will appear soon. Will trade the breakout or down out of the triangle, so lets wait for price confirmation to tell us what to do.

A triangle basically means a directionless trend, so no point trading until a clearer direction is set outside of it.

USDSGD

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The last time I talked about $USDSGD, it was at 1.28 & I shared its bull trend idea of hitting 1.35. https://tradeware.wordpress.com/2014/01/30/usdsgd/

It has gone way past that & consolidating back at 1.35 now, so looking at the multi year trend, it is likely to continue its uptrend which begin in 2014. Short term target is 1.38,  then 1.42. I have my own economic view of why this will happen but this blog isn’t about economics, its about trading so I leave that rant for some place else.

Same same but different?

Are giant robots/algos controlling the markets? The last 2 big -8% dips lasted almost exactly the same time periods of about 2 months, so will this time be different? Applying the same time ruler on the last 2 dips to an expected upcoming dip, we get 06 May 2013 as the week the market bottoms around 1420, which equates to about -8%. The weekly RSI is also overbought, same time as when the last 2 corrections began, & theres that long term rising RSI support from Sept 2011 still in play to support the idea of a 1420 support.

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NDX & SPX

As mentioned previously, NDX has hit its HNS right shoulder target at 2783 & reversed down. Now looking for support below its 200DMA around 2650. If that doesn’t hold then lower support is 2550 on the rising multi year trendline.

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SPX is showing a bearish shooting star on its monthly chart. First support is 1466, followed by  1415. Technically it looks setup to hit around 1415 before a much stronger reversal. Monthly chart isn’t overbought, so short term declines are expected.

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Having said all that, short term $TRIN & $NYMO are showing oversold signs, so be prepared for strong daily reversals along the way down.