$USDSGD has outperformed my own expectations, so heres a timely update before the new year arrives.
1.45 is a clear 61.8% fib retracement level from the 24 Dec 2001 peak of 1.85, so expect to see consolidation here before it makes the next big move. Weekly RSI is slightly overbought but looking at history, whenever it broke above 70RSI, it has gone higher for a couple of months before showing extended weakness, therefore I would be inclined to long on pullbacks, especially if it goes close to 1.40. Rising support trendline is quite well defined. If it breaks above 1.45 with strength, its a clear signal for much prices.
The last time I talked about $USDSGD, it was at 1.28 & I shared its bull trend idea of hitting 1.35. https://tradeware.wordpress.com/2014/01/30/usdsgd/
It has gone way past that & consolidating back at 1.35 now, so looking at the multi year trend, it is likely to continue its uptrend which begin in 2014. Short term target is 1.38, then 1.42. I have my own economic view of why this will happen but this blog isn’t about economics, its about trading so I leave that rant for some place else.
USDSGD 1.35 realistic? It also roughly coincides with the decade long falling trendline. First it should clear 1.28 convincingly. Catalyst: more bearish EM events & further Tapering news should push it up close to 1.35 before it decides to fall back into long term decline or a major trend reversal.